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ICBSC Business Simulation
& Prediction Model

Business simulation competition · quarterly forecasting, strategy, and financial analysis across 4 universities

Competition: ICBSC 2026 Team: Hornet Inc. (CSU Sacramento) 4 Quarters Completed · Year 4 in Progress Year: 2026

Project Overview

The Competition

  • ICBSC 2026 · 5-company international business simulation
  • Teams manage pricing, production, marketing, R&D, and financials each quarter
  • Competing against CSU Long Beach, Gordon University, San Jose State, and CSU Northridge
  • Hornet Inc. represents CSU Sacramento (Company 2, World 1)

The Prediction Model

  • Built a custom Python forecasting engine before each quarter's results were released
  • Predicted units sold, net income, market share, and production costs
  • Integrated price elasticity, competitor analysis, and capacity planning
  • Backed every strategic decision with data rather than guesswork

The Results

  • #1 Altman Z-Score (financial health) worldwide
  • #3 annual net income at $1,290K across all companies
  • 98.9% unit forecast accuracy in Q4
  • Only company at Model 2 maximum quality/feature level (Q3/F3)
  • Profitable every single quarter, no exceptions

Key Results

#1
Altman Z-Score (World)
98.9%
Q4 Unit Forecast Accuracy
$1.29M
Annual Net Income (#3 World)
4/4
Profitable Quarters

Power BI Performance Dashboard

Built an interactive Power BI dashboard tracking 12 quarters of Hornet Inc. data, with competitor benchmarking across all 5 companies and NI scenario planning (Plan / High / Low):

Power BI Performance Dashboard

Power BI dashboard: Hornet Net Income Trend (Y1–Y3), NI scenario bands (Plan / High / Low) by quarter, Average Market Share by company, and Unit Production Cost benchmarking across all competitors

The Prediction Model

Before each quarter's simulation results were revealed, I built a forecasting model to predict key business outcomes and drive smarter decisions:

Demand Forecasting

  • Modeled price elasticity to predict unit sales by region
  • Factored competitor pricing and advertising into demand curves
  • Accounted for market seasonality and growth trends
  • Achieved 98.9% accuracy in Q4 unit prediction (450K predicted vs. 445K actual)

Financial Projections

  • Projected net income including production cost, COGS, and selling expenses
  • Modeled gross margin impact of pricing and volume decisions
  • Forecasted cash flow and liquidity for strategic investments
  • Q4 net income beat prediction by +$102K (actual $536K vs. forecast $434K)

Production Planning

  • Optimized work hours (40/44/46/48hr scenarios) vs. unit cost trade-offs
  • Modeled inventory carry-over to prevent stockouts and overproduction
  • Calculated per-unit production cost under varying capacity scenarios
  • Selected 46-hour week in Q4, saving ~$140K vs. 48-hour alternative

Competitive Intelligence

  • Tracked all 5 competitors' pricing, market share, and profitability each quarter
  • Benchmarked Altman Z-Score, unit cost, and selling expenses industry-wide
  • Identified Company 4's unsustainable price-war strategy early ($5K net income)
  • Timed Model 2 premium launch to maximize quality differentiation

ICBSC Strategy Dashboard v2.3

Interactive forecasting tool built to simulate every decision before submitting, showing predicted market share, net income, revenue, and units sold with scenario recommendations

Predicted Results: Y3Q4 Peak Season

ICBSC Predicted Results Dashboard

Dashboard predicted 19.7% market share, $580K net income, and 454K units sold before results were revealed. Actual: 19.8% / $536K / 445K (98.9% unit accuracy)

Strategy Builder: Interactive Sliders

ICBSC Strategy Builder

Adjust price, advertising, salespeople, and order quantities by region; model recalculates predicted NI, share, and revenue in real time

Competitor Intelligence: Q3 Actuals + Q4 Outlook

ICBSC Competitor Intelligence

Full competitor table tracking units, share, revenue, NI, pricing by region, model quality, bonds, cash, and Altman Z, updated each quarter

Quarterly Strategy Journey

Q1

Q1 FY2026 · Price War Begins

  • A competitor initiated an aggressive price war, cutting to $9.00
  • Held premium pricing at $10.50, resulting in market share dip to 17.7%
  • Maintained $248K net income, second-highest profitability in the industry
  • Strong $3.9M liquidity position preserved for strategic response
  • Identified the price-war strategy as unsustainable (23.4% share, only $5K profit)
Q2

Q2 FY2026 · Strategic Price Correction

  • Targeted price cuts to $10.20 across all Merica regions
  • Increased advertising investment by 20%+ to rebuild brand presence
  • Recovered market share to 17.9% while generating $239K net income
  • Launched Model 2 and upgraded quality/features to Q2/F2
  • Began product differentiation strategy to separate from low-cost competitors
Q3

Q3 FY2026 · Premium Positioning

  • Raised prices to $10.70–$10.80, signaling a clear premium tier
  • Upgraded Model 2 to Q3/F3, the highest quality and feature level available
  • Became the ONLY company across all 5 universities at this product tier
  • Grew market share to 19.4% with $241K net income
  • Started bond retirement to improve financial health and Altman Z-Score
Q4

Q4 FY2026 · Best Quarter of the Year

  • 445K units sold, prediction was 450K (98.9% accuracy)
  • $536K net income, beating prediction by +$102K
  • Market share climbed to 19.8%
  • Retired $500K in bonds, securing #1 Altman Z-Score (2.71) worldwide
  • Annual net income of $1,290K ranked #3 across all companies globally
Y4

Year 4 · Competition Ongoing

Year 4 is currently in progress. Results and strategy will be published after the competition concludes.

Check back for updated quarterly reports as the competition continues.

Quarterly Business Reports

Created professional, data-rich HTML reports for each quarter, covering financial statements, market share analysis, competitive benchmarking, strategic insights, and forward-looking recommendations:

Q1 Business Review

  • Financial performance vs. forecast analysis
  • Market share breakdown by competitor and region
  • Inventory risk and production planning insights
  • 5 strategic recommendations for Q2
View Q1 Report →

Q2 Analysis Report

  • Price elasticity assessment and volume recovery
  • Model 2 launch impact and product positioning
  • Competitor profitability benchmarking
  • Advertising ROI across all four regions
View Q2 Report →

Q3 Analysis Report

  • Premium product differentiation strategy
  • Q3/F3 upgrade ROI and competitive moat analysis
  • Bond retirement and financial health tracking
  • Nystok market entry planning
View Q3 Report →

Q4 + Annual Review

  • Full Year 3 P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow analysis
  • Prediction model accuracy: 98.9% unit / +$102K NI beat
  • Industry benchmarking: Altman Z, unit cost, market share
  • SWOT analysis and forward-looking strategic plan

Available after the competition concludes.

Skills & Tools Demonstrated

Business Forecasting

Demand modeling, price elasticity analysis, revenue projection, and inventory optimization

Financial Analysis

Income statements, balance sheets, cash flow modeling, ROI, NPV, and Altman Z-Score

Competitive Strategy

Market positioning, benchmarking, SWOT analysis, and multi-quarter strategic planning

Data Visualization

Power BI dashboards, interactive HTML reports with charts, KPI cards, and competitive benchmarking grids

Decision Analysis

Scenario planning, sensitivity analysis, cost-benefit trade-offs, and risk assessment

Technologies & Concepts

Python Power BI Financial Modeling Demand Forecasting Competitive Analysis Strategic Planning Data Visualization Market Share Analysis Altman Z-Score Scenario Planning Sensitivity Analysis

Key Learnings

Price Elasticity is Dynamic

  • A 5% price increase in Q1 caused a 28% volume decline
  • Actual elasticity (~2.0) was far higher than the model assumed (1.2)
  • Markets give you real feedback every quarter, you have to listen and recalibrate

Financial Health Beats Volume

  • A competitor led market share at 23.4% but earned only $5K in profit
  • Strong margins and low debt gave us flexibility they didn't have
  • Outlasting unsustainable competitors is a strategy too

Differentiation Creates a Moat

  • Being the only company at Model 2 Q3/F3 quality justified premium pricing
  • R&D investment protected margin in a way that cutting price never could
  • Quality leadership is harder to copy than a price cut

Iteration Makes Models Smarter

  • Each quarter's results improved the next quarter's predictions
  • By Q4 the model hit 98.9% unit accuracy and beat NI forecast by $102K
  • Systematic, data-driven iteration compounds over time

Want to discuss business strategy and analytics?

I'd love to walk through the prediction model methodology or dive into any of the quarterly reports.

Get In Touch View More Projects